Iulian Mareș: Romania has chosen the European core. Now Southeast Europe must choose where to go

Newly elected President Nicușor Dan will have to rely on the reformist wings of the old parties to steer Romania through troubled economic waters

Iulian Mareș (source: Iulian Mareș, Facebook)

Vladimir Mitev

Iulian Mareș is an independent journalist and president of the Balkan Development Support Association, with a career spanning over 20 years in international relations, banking, and public administration. He is currently a PhD student at the University of Bucharest. Following the 2024 local elections he became a county councillor from the National Liberal Party.

Mr. Mareș, what conclusions do you draw from what has happened? What does Nicușor Dan's victory mean?

First of all, it means the victory of common sense and decency. Because the differences between the two candidates were clear. That's what I would say first.

Secondly, it is a victory for all those who mobilized independently in favor of Nicușor Dan. Because, you see, this is the first time that a candidate has won without the backing of a party. And what's more, without the backing of any other clearly defined socio-professional group.

In other words, there were simply thousands of people who, each in their own way, influenced people close to them, people on Facebook, on other social networks, and so on. In effect, it was a voluntary effort by thousands of people, coordinated by no one. That's what I would say.

Nicușor Dan has the image of someone who comes from the NGO sector, and even though he was mayor of Bucharest, he seemed a bit different from politicians and people in traditional parties. Now the new government is expected to be made up of the parties that people voted against when they supported Nicușor Dan. What do you think about that?

It's a bit of a paradoxical situation, indeed. But, until further notice, Parliament has the composition it has. And that's the result of last year's elections.

There's that expression, "we work with the client's material." Basically, Nicușor Dan, at this point, has to work with the existing parliamentary reality. He has no way of co-opting anyone else into the government.

And from this point of view, the big question is whether the PSD will enter the new government.

Nicușor Dan has said that party reform is needed. In the sense that the parties seem to be too much like interest groups linked to the distribution of resources.

That's true.

He probably wants a certain amount of civic energy to enter the parties and transform them. But if he tries to transform the parties, won't there be resistance? How will this dynamic work?

No, because I think this is a false dilemma. And I mean that sincerely. The argument is that all political parties have valuable people in them.

I mean, not all of them are stupid. Not all of them are corrupt, evil, and so on. And if you look around the country, you will see members of political parties, meaning mayors, councilors, ministers, secretaries of state, and so on, from all parties who have performed well in their jobs. I mean people who are undoubtedly good.

These people should be promoted to leadership positions and brought to the forefront. And those who have so far proved to be mediocre or ill-intentioned or with less European views should take a step back.

Okay, but to what extent does Nicușor Dan really have the personal power and institutional power to impose such a reform on the parties?

Yes, indeed, you have hit the nail on the head. Let's dot the i's and cross the t's here and say that the time has come for Romania to become a European country in the true sense of the word. Not just to mimic Europeanism, not just to dress up in the European Union's clothes while remaining Romanian or Balkan at heart.

And to answer your question, at this moment, he has, first and foremost, the power conferred on him by the presidential office. So we are talking about formal authority. Because, after all, the appointment or, rather, the proposal for the appointment of the prime minister lies with the president.

So Nicușor Dan currently has the power to propose a prime minister. In the next stage, this proposed prime minister must also be approved by Parliament. And this is where the first hurdle comes in.

He will successfully clear this hurdle if he manages to successfully negotiate with the majority parties in Parliament. But, I repeat, in addition to the formal power he has as the newly elected president, he also has the power of the votes that brought him to power. And it is clear that the people who voted for Nicușor Dan want reform, just like those who voted for Simion, only that the former want a different kind of reform from the latter, they want one in the European sense. The direction is clear.

And it is clear what kind of people should be in the future government. It is very clear.

And how would you define Nicușor Dan's allies at present? What characteristics do they have? Who are the social or economic groups that are his allies?

There are allies that we can easily see and allies that are less obvious. In the second category, I would say that, first and foremost, it is the business community that supports Nicuşor Dan, because the business community's position on the political situation has been very important. And the business community has called for a pro-European stance, for us to remain on the European path, and for stability, calm, and responsible management of the economic and financial crisis that lies ahead.

So that would be the first ally. The second ally is the people, those who voted, regardless of where they are, whether in the diaspora or in the country or in the Republic of Moldova or in the Hungarian counties. And these people wanted the same thing.

In the first category, the allies we can see more easily are obviously the parties that support Nicușor Dan, first and foremost the PNL, which has officially declared its support, the USR also supports him, the UDMR also supports him, and it remains to be seen what position the PSD will take. But I would point out that, as you saw, Ion Iliescu, the founding father of the PSD, has asked one thing, namely that his party support Nicușor Dan.

Okay, but you realize that many of these forces were very comfortable with the status quo until now. Won't Nicușor Dan try to form his own group or party or faction, that is, bring in new people, truly new people? Not people from other parties, but people from new backgrounds and so on.

It would be very difficult, if not impossible, for Nicușor Dan to invent people who have no connection with political parties. So that is very difficult, and I don't think it's the best way forward. Instead, the challenge he faces, and the right way forward, in my view, is to reach out to reformers in all parties.

We have witnessed discussions, for example, in both the PNL and the PSD, between people with pro-European views who want to reform these parties. And these people said the following before the election: "If Nicușor Dan doesn't win, the PNL is finished, and so is the PSD. We will disappear." At least in the reformist wing of both parties, there is this fear and people are aware that something must be done.

Before the second round, George Simion asked "what will I ‌do to you," referring to Nicușor Dan's voters. Now the question is what will Nicușor Dan do, or what will pro-European Romanians or the pro-European tendency with 5,300,000 sovereignists do? How should this rift be resolved, or what can be done about it? Will it remain as it is?

We need to look beyond the label of "sovereignists." Because the 5,000,000 people who voted with the sovereignist movement did not vote because they necessarily identified with this sovereignist movement or because they intimately, in their hearts, consider themselves sovereignists. People voted because they have unresolved problems. Because they have frustrations that have built up over time, and so on. It is clear that the new president's task is to target the problems, not the label.

The first task, from what I understand from reading the media, stems from the fact that Romania has macroeconomic problems related to the budget deficit, rising debt, and the danger of default. How do you think this will be resolved, especially since, if austerity measures are implemented, we will see once again that people with resources will have an easier life and will get off more lightly. And people who are not privileged and who usually vote against the old parties will pay a higher price.

This situation must be avoided for the simple reason that we must consider what a budget deficit means. You have less money than you need. You have public spending that is higher than your income.

And then the solution is to attract more money to the state budget. From my point of view, the right way is to tackle the black economy, to combat tax evasion, because it has reached a very high percentage in reality, and I don't think that imposing new indiscriminate taxes and duties is the solution, i.e., simply let's all pay. There is an expression, "la pauşal," which is how maintenance was paid in apartment buildings. I don't think that's the case here.

It's not right for everyone to pay for this. It needs to be remedied as part of a package that targets Romania's real problems. And one of them is the black economy, which is very large.

Now, another thing that seems to be on Nicușor Dan's agenda. He said he wants a more developed, more intense fight against corruption. Hasn't there been an agreement in Romanian society until now that anti-corruption will not be widespread? At present, the fight against corruption is very modest compared to what it used to be...

And if the fight against corruption is revived or relaunched, this will mean more divisions in society, more tension, as was the case before. I suspect that not many people want the fight against corruption to return...

Yes, the fight against corruption must be resumed. Because it will partially solve the deficit problem. Romania is not in a situation where it has no money.

There is money in Romania, but too much of it is black money that does not reach the state budget. And anti-corruption addresses this problem. There is a lot of black money, including in the political sphere. There are people who have a lot of money stashed away, and it's not white money.

Why is the fight against corruption necessary? Part of the budget deficit was caused by misguided public spending. Very large expenditures, made especially last year, which was an election year. In effect, the government foolishly handed out money to all the municipalities and towns, without it being absolutely necessary.

So, first of all, you solve the problem by turning off the tap. By cutting public spending, but after careful analysis. We don't have to go in with a sledgehammer.

It is true that the parties that have governed until now have caused part of this budget deficit problem, but solving it means cutting spending, which will hurt their own interests and perhaps harm the clientele of these parties. Isn't that so?

Well, yes, that is a problem. What you are saying is part of the problem. The clientele, the so-called clientele of the parties, is not a good thing. It is not a good thing at all.

How will it be solved? Where can this force come from that will push the parties to strike at the very circles that surround them?

They have no choice at this point. At this point, they have no choice, because there is nowhere to feed this clientele from. It's over. Regardless of what the parties want, there is no money left to feed this clientele.

Okay. You saw that Simion made anti-Macron statements. And in Poland, he received support from the sovereignists, but just when the election campaign was underway, Tusk supported Nicușor Dan.

And now we find ourselves in a situation where probably both France and Poland, with their current leadership, see Nicușor Dan's victory as their own. What do you think will happen next? Will there be something in the economic sphere or in other areas, such as closer cooperation between these countries? And what form could this cooperation take?

There will certainly be much closer cooperation with France from now on, on many levels. That's for sure. Simply because in Romania we have a vacuum of external influence that someone will fill.

And when I say that, I am referring to the fact that the United States has withdrawn. You know very well that Trump is not interested in Romania. Therefore, someone will fill this vacuum of external influence, and France will be that country.

Poland has just recently signed a defense cooperation agreement with France. What can we expect in Romanian-Polish relations?

That depends on the outcome of the elections in Warsaw. I am optimistic. I hope that the pro-European forces will win there too, in which case it would be advisable for Romania to strengthen its relations with Poland.

Rumen Radev, the Bulgarian president, who has been accused of many different things, had a telephone conversation yesterday with Nicușor Dan and invited him to Bulgaria. I know that you also have certain contacts with the Bulgarians. What can we expect in terms of Romania's regional policy towards South-Eastern Europe when Nicușor Dan is president?

This must be a moment of response for our entire region, not just for Romania. The Bulgarians should also decide which direction to take. If you look at the regional level, you will see that Albania has made progress and is expected to join the EU by 2030, which will change the situation at the regional level.

Does the fact that Romania has firmly chosen, through these elections, to be close to the core of Europe, in your opinion, mean a rapprochement of the region towards the core of Europe?

Absolutely yes. The choice of the Romanians was clear. You know very well that some of them are from the diaspora, and the diaspora voted overwhelmingly for Simion.

The paradox is that they are already there, in the core of Europe, speaking of the Romanian diaspora in Italy and Spain. You know that this message was sent from here, from Romania: "If you don't like it there, why don't you move to Russia?" But you work there—in Italy, Spain, Germany. I mean, beyond this voting choice, the reality is that these people, our Romanians there, earn their money in the heart of Europe.